Base Rate Fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals rely too heavily on specific, anecdotal information, while ignoring more general, statistical information. This bias can lead to errors in judgment and decision-making, as individuals may overlook the overall probability of an event occurring in favor of more salient, but ultimately less relevant information. One way in which Base Rate Fallacy can manifest is through the use of stereotypes. For example, if an individual assumes that all lawyers are wealthy, they may be more likely to believe that a specific lawyer they encounter is also wealthy, even if the lawyer in question is struggling financially. This is because the individual is relying on a stereotype, or specific anecdotal information, rather than considering the broader statistical information about lawyers' incomes. Another way in which Base Rate Fallacy can occur is through the use of vivid or emotionally charged information. For example, if an individual hears a dramatic story about a shark attack, they may become overly fearful of swimming in the ocean, even though the statistical likelihood of being attacked by a shark is extremely low. This is because the individual is focusing on the vivid, emotionally charged information about the shark attack, rather than the broader statistical information about the likelihood of such an event occurring. Overall, Base Rate Fallacy is a common cognitive bias that can lead to errors in judgment and decision-making. By being aware of this bias and actively seeking out more general, statistical information, individuals can make more informed and accurate decisions.
cognitive bias, decision-making, stereotypes, statistical information, vivid information
Base Rate Fallacy is when people make decisions based on information that is not representative of the whole situation. For example, if someone believes that most people like a particular type of food, but based their decision on the opinions of only a few people, then they are making a Base Rate Fallacy. This type of decision-making can lead to incorrect conclusions.
Base Rate Fallacy, Cognitive Biases, Logical Fallacies
CITATION : "Thomas Lee. 'Base Rate Fallacy.' Design+Encyclopedia. https://design-encyclopedia.com/?E=214126 (Accessed on June 09, 2025)"
Base Rate Fallacy, also known as Base Rate Neglect or Base Rate Bias, is a cognitive bias which occurs when people focus disproportionately on information that is more specific and ignores more general information. This is done by relying on the specific information that is provided, while ignoring the more general information that is available. This cognitive bias is often seen in decision making, when people make decisions that are not based on the overall probability of an event occurring, but rather on the specific information that is presented. This leads to errors in judgment as the probability of an outcome is often overlooked.
Cognitive Bias, Logical Fallacy, Probability, Information Overload.
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