Ludic Fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals believe that they can predict or control outcomes that are actually dependent on chance. This fallacy is often seen in situations where people believe that their decisions or actions can influence an outcome that is beyond their control. For example, a person may believe that they can win at a game of chance by using a particular strategy, even though the outcome is determined by random chance. This type of thinking can lead to poor decision-making and unnecessary risk-taking. The term Ludic Fallacy was coined by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in his book The Black Swan. Taleb argued that people often make the mistake of assuming that the future will be similar to the past, even in situations where the past is not a reliable indicator of future outcomes. This can lead to a false sense of security and overconfidence in one's ability to predict or control outcomes. One of the key aspects of Ludic Fallacy is the belief in the law of small numbers. This refers to the mistaken belief that a small sample size is representative of the larger population. For example, a person may believe that they can predict the outcome of a coin toss based on a few previous flips, even though the probability of heads or tails is always 50/50. Another important aspect of Ludic Fallacy is the role of randomness and chance in determining outcomes. Even in situations where there is some degree of skill or strategy involved, chance can still play a significant role in determining the outcome. This means that individuals need to be aware of the role of chance and avoid overestimating their ability to predict or control outcomes. In summary, Ludic Fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when individuals believe that they can predict or control outcomes that are actually dependent on chance. This fallacy is often seen in situations where people believe that their decisions or actions can influence an outcome that is beyond their control. The key aspects of Ludic Fallacy include the belief in the law of small numbers and the role of randomness and chance in determining outcomes.
Cognitive bias, predict, control, chance, decision-making, risk-taking, law of small numbers, randomness
Ludic Fallacy is when people think that the future will be the same as the past. This happens when people make decisions based on the past without considering the possibility that things might be different in the future. For example, if someone makes a bet on a game of dice and they win, they might think that they will keep winning in the future and make more bets without considering that they could lose.
Cognitive bias, logical fallacy, prediction, probability, prediction error, overconfidence.
Ludic Fallacy is a cognitive bias that occurs when a person assumes a situation is predictable or controllable when the outcome is actually dependent on chance. This fallacy is closely related to the Gambler's Fallacy which is the mistaken belief that if something has happened multiple times in the past, then it is more likely to occur in the future. Ludic Fallacy is often seen in situations where a person believes that their decisions or actions can control an outcome that is actually dependent on luck or chance. This type of thinking can lead to an individual making poor decisions or taking unnecessary risks.
Randomness, Gamble, Probability, Outcome.
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